Acceptability of Using Real-World Data to Estimate Relative Treatment Effects in Health Technology Assessments: Barriers and Future Steps.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence about the comparative effects of new treatments is typically collected in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). In some instances, RCTs are not possible, or their value is limited by an inability to capture treatment effects over the longer term or in all relevant population subgroups. In these cases, nonrandomized studies (NRS) using real-world data (RWD) are increasingly used to complement trial evidence on treatment effects for health technology assessment (HTA). However, there have been concerns over a lack of acceptability of this evidence by HTA agencies. This article aims to identify the barriers to the acceptance of NRS and steps that may facilitate increases in the acceptability of NRS in the future. METHODS: Opinions of the authorship team based on their experience in real-world evidence research in academic, HTA, and industry settings, supported by a critical assessment of existing studies. RESULTS: Barriers were identified that are applicable to key stakeholder groups, including HTA agencies (eg, the lack of comprehensive methodological guidelines for using RWD), evidence generators (eg, avoidable deviations from best practices), and external stakeholders (eg, data controllers providing timely access to high-quality RWD). Future steps that may facilitate future acceptability of NRS include improvements in the quality, integration, and accessibility of RWD, wider use of demonstration projects to highlight the value and applicability of nonrandomized designs, living, and more detailed HTA guidelines, and improvements in HTA infrastructure relating to RWD. CONCLUSION: NRS can represent a crucial source of evidence on treatment effects for use in HTA when RCT evidence is limited.

Transporting Comparative Effectiveness Evidence Between Countries: Considerations for Health Technology Assessments.

Internal validity is often the primary concern for health technology assessment agencies when assessing comparative effectiveness evidence. However, the increasing use of real-world data from countries other than a health technology assessment agency's target population in effectiveness research has increased concerns over the external validity, or "transportability", of this evidence, and has led to a preference for local data. Methods have been developed to enable a lack of transportability to be addressed, for example by accounting for cross-country differences in disease characteristics, but their consideration in health technology assessments is limited. This may be because of limited knowledge of the methods and/or uncertainties in how best to utilise them within existing health technology assessment frameworks. This article aims to provide an introduction to transportability, including a summary of its assumptions and the methods available for identifying and adjusting for a lack of transportability, before discussing important considerations relating to their use in health technology assessment settings, including guidance on the identification of effect modifiers, guidance on the choice of target population, estimand, study sample and methods, and how evaluations of transportability can be integrated into health technology assessment submission and decision processes.

Estimating the prevalence of diagnosed Alzheimer disease in England across deprivation groups using electronic health records: a clinical practice research datalink study.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the prevalence of diagnosed Alzheimer's disease (AD) and early Alzheimer's disease (eAD) overall and stratified by age, sex and deprivation and combinations thereof in England on 1 January 2020. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Primary care electronic health record data, the Clinical Practice Research database linked with secondary care data, Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and patient-level deprivation data, Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). OUTCOME MEASURES: The prevalence per 100 000 of the population and corresponding 95% CIs for both diagnosed AD and eAD overall and stratified by covariates. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the sensitivity of the population definition and look-back period. RESULTS: There were 448 797 patients identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink that satisfied the study inclusion criteria and were eligible for HES and IMD linkage. For the main analysis of AD and eAD, 379 763 patients are eligible for inclusion in the denominator. This resulted in an estimated prevalence of diagnosed AD of 378.39 (95% CI, 359.36 to 398.44) per 100 000 and eAD of 292.81 (95% CI, 276.12 to 310.52) per 100 000. Prevalence estimates across main and sensitivity analyses for the entire AD study population were found to vary widely with estimates ranging from 137.48 (95% CI, 127.05 to 148.76) to 796.55 (95% CI, 768.77 to 825.33). There was significant variation in prevalence of diagnosed eAD when assessing the sensitivity with the look-back periods, as low as 120.54 (95% CI, 110.80 to 131.14) per 100 000, and as high as 519.01 (95% CI, 496.64 to 542.37) per 100 000. CONCLUSIONS: The study found relatively consistent patterns of prevalence across both AD and eAD populations. Generally, the prevalence of diagnosed AD increased with age and increased with deprivation for each age category. Women had a higher prevalence than men. More granular levels of stratification reduced patient numbers and increased the uncertainty of point prevalence estimates. Despite this, the study found a relationship between deprivation and prevalence of AD.

Real-world evaluation of ocrelizumab in multiple sclerosis: A systematic review.

Across its clinical development program, ocrelizumab demonstrated efficacy in improving clinical outcomes in multiple sclerosis, including annualized relapse rates and confirmed disability progression. However, as with any new treatment, it was unclear how this efficacy would translate into real-world clinical practice. The objective of this study was to systematically collate the published real-world clinical effectiveness data for ocrelizumab in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. A search strategy was developed in MEDLINE and Embase to identify articles reporting real-world evidence in people with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis or primary progressive multiple sclerosis receiving treatment with ocrelizumab. The search focused on English language articles only but was not limited by the country in which the study was conducted or the time frame of the study. Additional manual searches of relevant websites were also performed. Fifty-two studies were identified reporting relevant evidence. Real-world effectiveness data for ocrelizumab were consistently favorable, with reductions in relapse rate and disease progression rates similar to those reported in the OPERA I/OPERA II and ORATORIO clinical trials, including in studies with more diverse patient populations not well represented in the pivotal trials. Although direct comparisons are confounded by lack of randomization of treatments, outcomes reported suggest that ocrelizumab has a similar or greater efficacy than other therapy options. Initial real-world effectiveness data for ocrelizumab appear favorable and consistent with results reported in clinical trials, providing clinicians with an efficacious option to treat patients with multiple sclerosis.

Unmeasured confounding in nonrandomized studies: quantitative bias analysis in health technology assessment.

Evidence generated from nonrandomized studies (NRS) is increasingly submitted to health technology assessment (HTA) agencies. Unmeasured confounding is a primary concern with this type of evidence, as it may result in biased treatment effect estimates, which has led to much criticism of NRS by HTA agencies. Quantitative bias analyses are a group of methods that have been developed in the epidemiological literature to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding and adjust effect estimates from NRS. Key considerations for application in HTA proposed in this article reflect the need to balance methodological complexity with ease of application and interpretation, and the need to ensure the methods fit within the existing frameworks used to assess nonrandomized evidence by HTA bodies.

Application of quantitative bias analysis for unmeasured confounding in cost-effectiveness modelling.

Due to uncertainty regarding the potential impact of unmeasured confounding, health technology assessment (HTA) agencies often disregard evidence from nonrandomized studies when considering new technologies. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) methods provide a means to quantify this uncertainty but have not been widely used in the HTA setting, particularly in the context of cost-effectiveness modelling (CEM). This study demonstrated the application of an aggregate and patient-level QBA approach to quantify and adjust for unmeasured confounding in a simulated nonrandomized comparison of survival outcomes. Application of the QBA output within a CEM through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and under different scenarios of knowledge of an unmeasured confounder demonstrates the potential value of QBA in HTA.

The Predictive and Prognostic Nature of Programmed Death-Ligand 1 in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: A Systematic Literature Review.

Introduction: Given the emergence of combination of programmed cell death protein-1 and CTLA4 pathway blockade as effective treatment options in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM), there is interest in the extent to which programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression may be prognostic of clinical outcomes and predictive of response to anti-programmed death (ligand) 1 (PD-[L]1) therapies. Methods: MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases were searched until November 4, 2020. English-language randomized trials and observational studies that reported clinical outcomes and PD-L1 expression in adult patients (>18 or >20 y) with MPM were included. Forest plots were used to descriptively summarize clinical outcome data across studies. Results: A total of 29 publications were identified providing data on the research question. Among the studies in which anti-PD-(L)1 therapies were not specified to have been used, 63% (10 of 16) found patients with tumors expressing PD-L1 (typically >1%) to have poorer survival than those with tumors expressing lower levels of PD-L1. Among the studies in which anti-PD-(L)1 therapies were used, 83% (five of six) did not reveal an association between survival and PD-L1 tumor expression. The single study directly comparing outcomes between those treated and untreated with anti-PD-(L)1 therapies across different PD-L1 cutoffs did not identify any differences between the groups. Conclusions: The quality and consistency of the existing evidence base are currently insufficient to draw conclusions regarding a prognostic or predictive role of PD-L1 in MPM. Furthermore, high-quality studies on this topic are required to support the use of PD-L1 as a biomarker in MPM.

Matching-adjusted indirect treatment comparison of [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE, everolimus and sunitinib in advanced, unresectable gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours: Relative effectiveness of [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE in gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours.

Head-to-head comparisons of the efficacy of treatments for gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP-NETs) have not yet been reported. This study used a series of matching-adjusted indirect comparisons to indirectly compare the effectiveness of [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE to everolimus, sunitinib and best supportive care (BSC) for extending progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with advanced, unresectable gastrointestinal (GI)-NETs and P-NETs. The results of the main analysis suggest that after accounting for differences in key prognostic variables, the hazard of progression was 62% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.38; confidence interval [CI]95 0.25-0.58) and 65% (HR 0.35 CI95 0.21-0.59) lower in patients with GI-NETs treated with [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE than in those treated with everolimus and BSC, respectively. Similarly, the hazard of progression was 64% (HR 0.36 CI95 0.18-0.70), 54% (HR 0.46 CI95 0.30-0.71) and 79-87% (HR 0.21 CI95 0.13-0.32; HR 0.13 CI95 0.08-0.22) lower in patients with P-NET treated with [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE than in those treated with sunitinib, everolimus and BSC, respectively. The hazard of death was 58% (HR 0.42 CI95 0.25-0.72), 47% (HR 0.53 CI95 0.33-0.87) and 44-64% (HR 0.56 CI95 0.36-0.90; HR 0.34 CI95 0.20-0.57) lower in P-patients with NET treated with [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE than in those treated with sunitinib, everolimus and BSC, respectively. While our results must be interpreted with caution given the non-randomised nature of the comparisons and the potential for residual confounding, the magnitude of the effect sizes we observe and their consistency across comparators suggest that [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE may be a more effective treatment option than everolimus, sunitinib and BSC in advanced, unresectable GEP-NETs.

The value of innovation: association between improvements in survival of advanced and metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and targeted and immunotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Significant improvements in mortality among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in the USA over the past two decades have been reported based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. The timing of these improvements led to suggestions that they result from the introduction of new treatments; however, few studies have directly investigated this. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which population level improvements in survival of advanced and/or metastatic NSCLC (admNSCLC) patients were associated with changes in treatment patterns. METHODS: We utilized a de-identified database to select three cohorts of patients with admNSCLC: (1) patients with non-oncogene (EGFR/ALK/ROS1/BRAF) positive tumors, (2) patients with ALK-positive (ALK+) tumors, and (3) patients with EGFR-positive (EGFR+) tumors. All patients were diagnosed with admNSCLC between 2012 and 2019. Multivariable Cox models adjusting for baseline characteristics and receipt of targeted and immunotherapy were utilized to explore the relationship between these variables and changes in the hazard of death by calendar year in each cohort. RESULTS: We included 28,154 admNSCLC patients with non-oncogene positive tumors, 598 with ALK+ tumors, and 2464 with EGFR+ tumors eligible for analysis. After adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics, the hazard of death in patients who had non-oncogene positive tumors diagnosed in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 ,and 2019 was observed to be 12%, 11%, 17%, 20%, and 21% lower respectively than that for those diagnosed in 2012. Upon additionally adjusting for receipt of first line or second line immunotherapy, the decrease in the hazard of death by calendar year was no longer observed, suggesting improvements in survival observed over time may be explained by the introduction of these treatments. Similarly, decreases in the hazard of death were only observed in patients with ALK+ tumors diagnosed between 2017 and 2019 relative to 2012 but were no longer observed following adjustment for the use of 1st and later generation ALK inhibitors. Among patients with EGFR+ tumors, the hazard of death did not improve significantly over time. CONCLUSION: Our findings expand on the SEER data and provide additional evidence suggesting improvements in survival of patients with advanced and metastatic NSCLC over the past decade could be explained by the change in treatment patterns over this period.

CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores and real-world oral anticoagulant prescribing decisions in atrial fibrillation.

Background: Guidelines indicate that oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment decisions in atrial fibrillation should be based on a balanced consideration of thromboembolic and bleeding risk. Materials & methods: A retrospective cohort of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients were identified. Univariate logistic regression and conditional inference trees were used to quantify the importance of the CHA2DS2-VASc and modified HAS-BLED scores and their individual components on OAC treatment decisions. Results: The individual components of these risk scores provided more distinguishability between treated and untreated patients than the risk scores themselves, with bleeding risk factors strongly associated with nontreatment. Conclusion: While individual components of risk scores drive OAC treatment decisions according to guidelines, the relationship between bleeding risk factors and nontreatment warrants further consideration.

Comparative effectiveness of trastuzumab emtansine versus lapatinib plus chemotherapy for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer.

Aim: To investigate the comparative effectiveness of trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) in a real-world population of HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (mBC) patients. Materials & methods: The Flatiron Health database was used to identify a cohort of HER2+ mBC patients who received first-line trastuzumab treatment and T-DM1 or lapatinib plus chemotherapy as second-line treatment. Overall survival was compared between the two groups. Results: A total of 278 patients with HER2+ mBC received second-line T-DM1 and 34 lapatinib plus chemotherapy. Overall survival was longer in patients treated with T-DM1 than those treated with lapatinib plus chemotherapy (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.38-0.85). Conclusion: Real-world data supports the effectiveness of T-DM1 in the second-line treatment of HER2+ mBC patients.

Lay abstract EMILIA was a randomized clinical trial (RCT) ­ a type of study designed to test whether a treatment works in a particular disease, using methods to remove possible bias. The study showed that a treatment called trastuzumab emtansine (shortened to T-DM1) improved the survival of patients with a particular type of breast cancer, known as HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (mBC). However, as clinical trials are run under controlled conditions, they do not fully reflect results under normal circumstances. In this study, we looked at the effect of treating a 'real' population of HER2+ mBC patients with T-DM1 in the USA. We found that T-DM1 still improved survival in these 'real-world' patients. Studies in the 'real world' can have some bias, as they are not controlled like RCTs; however, taking the results of the EMILIA RCT, along with the results of our study, supports the use of T-DM1 as a treatment option for HER2+ mBC patients.

The use of UK primary care databases in health technology assessments carried out by the National Institute for health and care excellence (NICE).

BACKGROUND: Real world evidence (RWE) is becoming more frequently used in technology appraisals (TAs). This study sought to explore the use and acceptance of evidence from primary care databases, a key source of RWE in the UK, in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) technology assessments and to provide recommendations regarding their use in future submissions. METHODS: A keyword search was conducted relating to the main primary care databases in the UK on the NICE website. All NICE TAs identified through this search were screened, assessed for duplication and information on the data source and the way the data was used in the submission were extracted. Comments by the evidence review group (ERG) and the appraisal committee were also extracted and reviewed. All data extraction was performed by two independent reviewers and all decisions were reached by consensus with an additional third reviewer. RESULTS: A total of 52 NICE TAs were identified, 47 used the General Practice Research Database /Clinical Practice Research Datalink (GPRD/CPRD) database, 10 used The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database and 3 used the QResearch databases. Data from primary care databases were used to support arguments regarding clinical need and current treatment in 33 NICE TAs while 36 were used to inform input parameters for economic models. The databases were sometimes used for more than one purpose. The data from the three data sources were generally well received by the ERGs/committees. Criticisms of the data typically occurred where the results had been repurposed from a published study or had not been applied appropriately. CONCLUSIONS: The potential of UK primary care databases in NICE submissions is increasingly being realised, particularly in informing the parameters of economic models. Purpose conducted studies are less likely to receive criticism from ERGs/committees, particularly when providing clinical input into cost effectiveness models.

Factors associated with non-prescription of oral anticoagulant treatment in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with dementia: a CPRD-HES study.

Dementia is a common comorbidity in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and treatment guidelines recommend oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy for AF patients with dementia unless concordance cannot be ensured by the caregiver. Despite this, the literature reports a low prescribing of OAC treatment in these patients. This study investigated possible factors associated with non-prescribing of OAC treatment in dementia patients newly diagnosed with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) at age ≥ 65 years between 2013 and 2017 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episodes Statistics databases. Of 1090 dementia patients newly diagnosed with NVAF, 693 (63.6%) patients did not have a prescription for an OAC in the year following their diagnosis. The likelihood of experiencing a thromboembolic event was high, with 97% of the population having a CHA2DS2-VASc score > 2; however, little difference in the presence of stroke risk factors was observed between the prescribed and non-prescribed groups. The presence of bleeding risk factors was high; only 28 (2.6%) of patients did not have a previous fall or a HAS-BLED bleeding risk factor. A history of falls [OR = 0.76, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) (0.58, 0.98)], previous major bleed [OR = 0.56, 95% CI (0.43, 0.73)] and care home residence [OR = 0.47, 95% CI (0.30, 0.74)] were associated with not having an OAC prescription. The results suggest that dementia patients with NVAF and certain risk bleeding risk factors are less likely to be prescribed an OAC. Further work is needed to establish possible relationships between bleeding risk factors and other potential drivers of OAC prescribing.

Approaches for the identification of chronic kidney disease in CPRD-HES-linked studies.

Aim: There are different methods to identify chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Methods: Using CPRD-HES, nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients were classified according to CKD category. Results: Using glomerular filtration rate/estimated glomerular filtration rate tests only to identify patients with CKD resulted in 3.5% stage 2, 2.7% stage 3, 0.3% stage 4 and 0.03% stage 5. Using data from diagnostic codes to identify patients with CKD resulted in 1.4% stage 3, 0.4% stage 4 and 0.3% stage 5. Using test records and codes resulted in 3.5% stage 2, 4.0% stage 3, 0.6% stage 4 and 0.4% stage 5. Conclusion: To identify CKD status in CPRD-HES, a combination of test records and codes should be used. Using diagnostic codes only significantly underestimates CKD prevalence.

Nonindependence of patient data in the clinical practice research datalink: a case study in atrial fibrillation patients.

Aim: The impact of different strategies to handle patients with data recorded under multiple Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) identifiers (IDs) is unknown. Patients and methods: Six approaches to handling patients appearing under multiple CPRD IDs were defined. The impact of the approaches was illustrated using a case study describing the clinical characteristics of a population of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients. Results: 5.6% of patients had more than one CPRD ID. Across all six approaches implemented, no material difference in the characteristics of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients were observed. Conclusion: While strategies which longitudinally append patient registration periods under different CPRD IDs maintain independence while using all available data, their implementation had little impact on the results of our case study.